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問2 筆者は主張を証明するために2つのスポーツに関する4つの調査に言及しています。筆者の述べていることに基づくと、あなたの考えではこれらの調査のどれが最も説得力があり、どれがもっとも説得力が無いでしょうか?理由を説明しなさい。





調査1 ドイツ人審判の行動の調査、3500試合、12年間のデータ 

結果: 地元チーム優遇傾向

要因: 観客の存在、観客席が近い―トラック競技コースのない会場では誤審率10%

調査2 プロサッカー審判に同じ試合のビデオを音あり/なしで見せる調査

結果: 地元チームに反則を取る確率が音ありは音なしより15%低  要因: 観客席の音

調査3 サッカーのPKでける方向の調査 

結果: 直接ゴールを狙うべきときにそうしないことが多い  

要因: はずすと恥だから(研究者Levittの説明)

調査4 野球チームオークランド・アスレチックスの成功例  

要因: 注目されないタイプでリスクを恐れない選手を起用



説得力あり 調査1 data covering 3500 games for 12 yearsstatistical credibility is high / running tracktelling evidence that judges are affected by the crowd 調査2 The sound of the crowd is the only factor that is different between the two groups, which means that other factors are controlled and indicates strongly that the sound of the spectators has a strong influence on the decisions made by the judges.This makes this survey more convincing than others.

説得力なし 調査3 The explanation is subjective (Levitt’s translation) / needs more data covering the reasons why players did not shoot straight, such as questionnaires in which players, teammates, and coaches are asked to explain why the kicker made the decisions / usually professional football players consider many factors such as the condition and the movement of the keeper, other players’ positions, advice from his coach and teammates, and his own condition, experience, and intuition in a second and make a decision, and therefore not kicking straight down the middle can often be a positive decision made by the player trying to lead the team to its victory調査4 based on the success story of only one team for probably one seasonIn the case of other teams, the same thing might not have happened. Also, it is unlikely that the same team kept winning for many years with the same strategy, for there is no such reference in this passage. There are possibilities of accumulation of good luck or other contributing factors such as chemistry among players / criteria of misfits are subjectiveMany baseball stars are thin or heavy.



問3 他人や環境の影響が原因で、後で後悔するような判断を下してしまうのはどんな時ですか?どのようにしてよい判断を下すように勤めていますか?



調査1+2 審判は観客に影響される  調査3 人前で恥をかきたくない心理が判断に影響する

調査4 注目されていなくてリスクを犯すことができる人たちが成功した






自分以外は全員同じ意見の時、peer pressure(仲間の圧力)に負ける






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